What Comes Next?
Israel will not be able to destroy Hezbollah, because the Shiite Party of God has more than one million supporters in Lebanon. Even if Israel kills Hassan Nasrallah, there are thousands more that are willing to take his place.
The Hezbollah guerillas are willing to die for their cause and they are able to hurt Israel with their long range missiles. They will never give up the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped nor will they ever lay down their weapons.
The current war will probably end when Israel creates a 20 km “security zone” within Lebanon and then go into negotiations to free its soldiers. But the danger to Lebanon will come after that.
What will happen next is the break up of the national dialogue and that of Lebanon, the return of the civil war or a pro-Syrian and Iranian take over of Lebanon.
Weapons are in the hands of Hezbollah and their Lebanese and Palestinian allies and in those of the Lebanese army that will break up in case of any sectarian conflict.
Therefore the balance of power within Lebanon is totally in favour of Hezbollah and its allies.
In that respect the free, democratic and prosperous Lebanon that we dreamt about on 14 March 2005 was just that…a dream.
Instead the Islamic Republic of Lebanon will rise...unless both the regimes of Syria and Iran fall or unless a just and lasting peace occurs in the Middle East.
The Hezbollah guerillas are willing to die for their cause and they are able to hurt Israel with their long range missiles. They will never give up the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped nor will they ever lay down their weapons.
The current war will probably end when Israel creates a 20 km “security zone” within Lebanon and then go into negotiations to free its soldiers. But the danger to Lebanon will come after that.
What will happen next is the break up of the national dialogue and that of Lebanon, the return of the civil war or a pro-Syrian and Iranian take over of Lebanon.
Weapons are in the hands of Hezbollah and their Lebanese and Palestinian allies and in those of the Lebanese army that will break up in case of any sectarian conflict.
Therefore the balance of power within Lebanon is totally in favour of Hezbollah and its allies.
In that respect the free, democratic and prosperous Lebanon that we dreamt about on 14 March 2005 was just that…a dream.
Instead the Islamic Republic of Lebanon will rise...unless both the regimes of Syria and Iran fall or unless a just and lasting peace occurs in the Middle East.
posted by zadigvoltaire at 12:50 PM
17 Comments:
Do you see no hope in the future for Lebanon? What can be done to disarm Hisbollah? Is it a lost cause?
Then Israel will kill every last member of Hizballah. It's a done deal.
"In that respect the free, democratic and prosperous Lebanon that we dreamt about on 14 March 2005 was just that…a dream."
It takes more than dreaming to be free. Unfortunately it takes blood. You will never be free until terrorists are expeled. Until then you are their chattel.
"The Hezbollah guerillas are willing to die for their cause"
Good. Let them die then. Everybody will be happy.
Is life so sweet and peace so dear so as to be purchased at the price of Chains and Slavery? Forbid it G*d Almighty.
I know not what course others may take but as for me Give Me Liberty OR Give Me Death - Patrick Henry Senator from Virginia 1775
Vinegar tastes sweeter to a Free MAn than doth honey to a Slave.
You don't WISH or Hope for freedom you have to fight, kill, and sometimes, Die for it.
Freedom ain't free
I wish you luck my friend but wishing won't make you free you must find and destroy those seeking to enslave you.
Syria was just attacked
Lebanon will never be free or prosperous as long as Hezballah is armed, controls the south and provokes Israel. Oh yeah, and they hold elected office in your government too. Welcome to a place we like to call "consequences of your own actions."
Nobody pays attention to protests anymore in major cities like London or New York, we are all so used to them they don't mean anything, no matter the reason.
Lets all hope for the fall of Syria and Iran then.
so rise now!
stand up and walk!
push out syrians and hezb. now! with your blood!
Surprise, surprise , Israeli's are NOT afraid to die for defending Israel.The difference is that they are willing to sacrifice their lives, to SAVE their country.BUT THEY DO NOT BLOW THEMSELVES UP AND THEN KILL INNOCENT PEOPLE. Only morons do that, people that have brains but, not using it, because it is being used by the devil!
So to continue, if the people then allow these terrorists between them, then they are terrorists, so :: HEAR O HEAR IDF !!! DO NOT CHOOSE TARGETS, START ONE SIDE AND FINISH THE JOB!!!
For some reason the bombing of Lebanon by Israel has hurt me a lot ... it is sad that the most progressive and westward thinking Arab country in the Middle East is seeing this. I have so many Lebanese friends, and my heart goes out to you. Stay strong. I pray for Peace. Armenia and Armenians will always and forever be with Lebanon, her people and her spirit.
Peace....Inshallah.
I am an american jew who always loved Lebanon and the Lebanese people. Remain steadfast and hold on.Get rid of this Hezbollah-vermin. There use to be a saying: Nobody knows who will be the first Arab country that will make peace with Israel, but everybody knows who will be second: Lebanon. It didn't happen, thanks to Arafat and et al. Now there is a good chance. You have the most beautiful beaches. You had the best banking system.....Remain steadfast and get rid of terrorism, ignorance. Prosper in friendly competition with Israel. Show what a miracle peace and commerce with your neighbour is. Please remain steadfast.
You condemn Israel for invading Lebanon. You say Lebanon is not responsible for Hezbollah. I want to tell you that Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government, and If Lebanon is a sovereign country, so it is responsible for its actions and to its borders, responsibility Lebanon is refusing to take.
Terrorism is a bad thing, says France, and adds that a response to terrorism on France can include nuclear attack (said by president Shirak not so long ago) . But – if terrorism is targeting Israel and Israeli citizens, well, they can live with it. After all, the Muslims just want to protest the occupation. Let me remind you: Israel left Lebanon more than six years ago. It withdrew from Gaza almost a year ago, but in return to this steps Israel gets rocket attacks to its civilian territories. Don’t try to say Israel attacks Gaza and Lebanon over 3 kidnapped soldiers. It is only part of the big picture in which terror groups launch missiles on populated areas. What would you do if your cities were attacked in this way? Sit and do nothing? I don’t think so!!!
I just want to tell all of you my European friends, we are not the last address of Islam’s fundamentalism, we are just getting hit first since we’re on the front line with the Arab world.
You encourage recent attacks on Israeli cities and town from rockets launched from Gaza and from Lebanon, by ignoring the fact those launches even happen and are taking lives of Israeli civilians. By only covering the Palestinian and Lebanese casualties, by not condemning Terrorism and abductions on a sovereign land, you encourage more actions like these. And by doing so, you call them upon your doorstep, from within your society. There are millions of Muslims in Europe just waiting for a call upon Jihad. The feel Allah is with them now. We call upon you to wake up, Europe, and face the problems. Try to find alternative energy sources, like the Japanese do, since they got fed up with the Arab world “oil politics”. The Arab world buy your silence with oil, and you swallow it.
Another point for your thoughts:
Why when Japan wants to launch a preemptive strike on North Korea, which only tested missiles is not condemned, but when Palestinians or Lebanese invade Israel and take lives, (of civilians too if you check closely not just on the headlines), and Israel in acts of self defense attack those territories, is seen as an aggressor?!
By trying to look deep into the situation and condemning such acts as they begin, demanding the full stop of missiles launching to Israeli territories, Israel could avoid the measures it is taking now, saving hundreds of lives for all sides involved.
How rude crude, discourteous, impolite; primitive, simple, unsophisticated; harsh, severe!
Yes, I am talking to the world. How can you say to Israel that the Israeli reaction to this situation is exaggerated? How easy is that for those countries to talk!
Think about it, put your self in our shoes (situation) - What would you have done if your country got attack?
Not just attack!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Kidnapping soldiers
- Killing soldiers
- Killing innocent people
- Rockets, missile (whatever you want to call it) from the North to the South, and who knows if may be in the center of Israel (lets hope not).
- Suicide bomb (explosion), and much much, more.
- Also, young children are out there throwing big rocks on our Israeli soldiers at the Israeli border. They Israeli soldiers can't do anything, because the world is always on our neck. How would you feel?
Now, to make things clear or to remind (World), Israel does not want a war with any of those countries!!!!!
We gave away:
-Gaza
-We remove all of the people from Gush Katif (I am ashamed how we send away our own people for what?)
-We had an agreement with the Arab (Oslo Accords)
-We gave away medication, food, weather, electricity, fuel, weapon, and much, much more.
-We let the prisoners see their own families and lawyers.
The list is longer! However, I think we made our point!
We love Israel, and we want to live here in peace (state of not being at war; silence, quietness). So, we gave and we gave and they only thing that we got from them is a slap in our face. It hurts!
Now, the Israeli government must do whatever it takes to protect the people in Israel ( nation!)
Excuse us if we are killing innocent people, after all they made the first move to Israel (bad move) and they sympathize with their own LEADER!
How come the government let Hozballa enter the Lebanon country? Why the nation is helping the Hozballa?
If anyone allows terrorists to operate within their country they can expect a war - surely?
Thank you,
Israeli citizen
The State of Israel
How can any of you justify killing of innocents. Gandhi said it best , no matter if it was a totalatirian regime or that of a democractic state, thier is no justification for killing inocent human life.
the united states could stop the bombing tommorow , but are president is a monkey ruled by a crazy bunch of gorrillas.
let us hope peace breaks out soon .
Who won? who lost? it's of no importance, unless the Lebanese people make it really important, e.g.: there is going to be another war; it will probably start with Lebanon and maybe Syria; Iran will be isolated because nobody wants the mullahs to have nukes; (by the way I have been reading that they are the biggest real estate owners in Toronto, CANADA.............this should be disseminated in Iranian blogs); this was a "proving" war, to test and see what Hez. is capable of; the Israelis got plenty of help from courageous Lebanese whom I suspect of pinpointing lots of things; the damage to Beirut was very accurate and controlled; the damaged centered on all the neighbourhoods that Hez. controlled and that ordinary Lebanese "could not get in"; don't cry for me Argentina= don't cry for Lebanon;the important question is: how to get rid of this vermin and their associates and rebuild Lebanon.....when the next round starts again, druze, sunnis, christians and democratic shia should stand united..............how to stop the internal fighting that's of the most importance.....................Lebanon has been manipulated too long by outside forces that have taken advantage of the different groups; Is Nasrallah a palestinian who has done to Lebanon what Arafat tried to do or is he a Lebanese who has done what he wants, whenever he wants and with "no knowledge" by the government of his actions and no concern for the Lebanese people. What a rat. He is now distributing 15000 dollars per family and that's is a challenge to Hariri, Siniora et al...............Are these gentlemen capable of such largese? Are the Saudis capable of such largese? If I would be a "donor" I would offer this kind of help to any lebanese that has not gotten and will not get any money from Hez..........people think...........tjhink and act...............and make it inclusive against the forces that darken the future of Lebanon.
I am going to post this same message in other blogs
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